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In recent years, despite the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on major global economies, China's aluminum industry, based on a sound domestic economic foundation, has unswervingly implemented a series of regulatory policies, including the "Notice on the Special Action Plan for Cleaning Up and Rectifying Illegal and Irregular Projects in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry", etc. Supply-side structural reforms have continued to deepen, demand-side market development has steadily progressed, and the industry's profitability has continued to increase, gradually stabilizing on the path of high-quality development. In 2021, China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 38.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of this year, China's electrolytic aluminum production was approximately 19.76 million tons, basically remaining flat compared to the same period last year. Since last year, under the influence of imported inflation, production capacity ceilings, energy consumption dual control, power rationing and production restrictions, aluminum prices have been running at high levels, with the price per ton of aluminum once approaching the high of 25,000 yuan and reaching a 15-year high. However, recently, due to rising raw material costs and concerns about a global recession caused by continued interest rate hikes by major global economies, aluminum prices have seen a sharp correction, even once again reaching the break-even point for some companies. Overall, the basic supply and demand fundamentals of China's aluminum industry have not changed significantly, with challenges and opportunities coexisting.

Currently, China's aluminum industry is focusing on achieving its "dual carbon" goals, establishing itself in the new development stage, implementing new development concepts, and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern for the aluminum industry that encompasses both domestic and international markets. Green and Low-Carbon Aluminum: Under the guidance of the national "dual carbon" goals, carbon reduction efforts are accelerating across various industries, with the aluminum industry at the forefront. It's well-known that the aluminum industry has two contrasting characteristics: high energy consumption and energy efficiency. On one hand, electrolytic aluminum, the upstream part of the industry chain, is known as an "electricity hog" and is undoubtedly a major energy consumer. On the other hand, aluminum products, due to their lightweight, corrosion resistance, and recyclability, are the preferred material for downstream industries pursuing energy-efficient and low-carbon development. Coal-fired power generation is the largest source of carbon emissions in China. Using coal-fired electricity to produce electrolytic aluminum results in approximately 11.2 tons of carbon emissions per ton of aluminum. It is estimated that coal-fired power currently accounts for about 80% of the electricity used in China's electrolytic aluminum production. Therefore, the carbon reduction task for the aluminum industry, especially the aluminum smelting industry, is extremely arduous, and controlling the green use of electricity in the aluminum industry is crucial. The green and low-carbon development of the electrolytic aluminum industry relies on two main factors: increasing the proportion of green and low-carbon electricity used in the electrolytic aluminum industry and increasing the proportion of green electricity in the overall power system. Compared to the high carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power generation for electrolytic aluminum, hydropower, with almost zero carbon dioxide emissions, has become the main energy source for electrolytic aluminum's pursuit of green and low-carbon development. In recent years, based on the distribution of China's power energy structure, in order to achieve green and low-carbon energy use, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has also been rapidly shifting to Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, which are rich in hydropower resources. Currently, among Weqiao Group's 6.46 million tons of compliant electrolytic aluminum production capacity, approximately 4 million tons have been transferred to Yunnan Province for hydropower aluminum production, accounting for about 62%. Chalco has 3.188 million tons of hydropower aluminum projects in Yunnan, including 3.05 million tons from Yunal. Among Henan Shenhuo Co., Ltd.'s 1.7 million tons of compliant electrolytic aluminum production capacity, 900,000 tons have been transferred to Yunnan to build hydropower aluminum, with more than half of its low-carbon green aluminum. Its subsidiary has established a 900,000-ton annual green hydropower aluminum project in Dali, Yunnan, and signed investment agreements for 500,000 tons of recycled aluminum and 300,000 tons of aluminum processing projects at the beginning of this year. In addition to Yunnan, a considerable number of hydropower aluminum projects have also been established in Sichuan. Among Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd.'s 500,000 tons of compliant electrolytic aluminum production capacity, 250,000 tons have been transferred to Guangyuan, Sichuan, to build a green hydropower aluminum project. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2021, the proportion of hydropower aluminum in China reached about 21%. Although the proportion of hydropower used in the aluminum industry has been increasing in recent years, China still has significant untapped hydropower potential. It is reported that the United States has developed 70% of its hydropower resources, while countries like Iceland and Norway have utilization rates exceeding 90%. Compared to other countries, China's hydropower development accounts for less than 30%, indicating enormous potential. China's terrain is generally high in the west and low in the east, with abundant hydropower resources in the central and western regions awaiting development. The western region also has abundant bauxite reserves, and neighboring countries also have considerable bauxite reserves, providing strong resource support for China's vigorous development of hydropower aluminum. Baihetan Hydropower Station, China's largest hydropower station, can generate more than 62 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. On the Jinsha River, where Sichuan and Yunnan provinces meet, Baihetan, along with Wudongde upstream and Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Three Gorges, and Gezhouba hydropower stations downstream, forms the world's largest clean energy corridor. It is evident that there is still significant potential for hydropower aluminum projects in China. However, hydropower is not the only option for the green energy development of electrolytic aluminum. With the development and improvement of China's green energy and the construction and improvement of diversified low-carbon energy, the green energy consumption model of the aluminum industry is constantly innovating and emerging. Currently, in addition to hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in various parts of China are also being used in industrial production with the development of power grid construction. For example, Qinghai Province, which has the highest proportion of clean energy and new energy installed capacity in the country, currently has a total installed capacity of 40.5 million kilowatts, of which 36.57 million kilowatts are clean energy (90.3%), and 24.64 million kilowatts are new energy (60.9%). Currently, Qinghai Province has approximately 2.7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Although these electrolytic aluminum companies use grid electricity, they indirectly meet the requirements of green and low-carbon production. Gansu Province, which is rich in wind and light resources, is also vigorously developing the clean energy industry. The province's technically exploitable wind power and solar power generation capacity is 560 million kilowatts and 9.5 billion kilowatts, respectively. To date, the installed capacity of new energy in Gansu Province accounts for nearly half of the total installed capacity of the power grid, and the utilization rate of new energy power generation has increased from 60.2% in 2016 to 96.83% currently. In 2021, the province's new energy power generation exceeded 40 billion kilowatt-hours, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 40 million tons. The new energy electricity from Longxi, Gansu, has been successfully transmitted to eastern regions, with annual external transmission exceeding 100 billion kilowatt-hours. At the same time, peak-regulating power sources such as pumped hydro storage, chemical energy storage, and coal-fired power supporting new energy development are under construction. By combining energy storage with new energy power plants to form virtual power plants and participating in peak regulation, the peak regulation capacity of the power grid system can be further improved, making new energy more stable and reliable. In addition, Inner Mongolia and other regions are also rich in wind and light energy resources. With certain energy storage technologies and a combination of coal-fired power, they will have strong competitiveness in green energy in the future. It is reported that China's planned new power system will have a total installed capacity of 6 to 8 billion kilowatts, with wind power and photovoltaic power accounting for 70% and "stable power sources" accounting for 30%. Over 40 years, in roughly ten-year periods, China will successively follow the path of carbon-controlled electricity, carbon-reduced electricity, low-carbon electricity, and finally near-zero-carbon electricity, completing the construction of ultra-large-scale power transmission and transformation infrastructure. Key technologies such as energy storage, conversion, consumption, and output are also being accelerated, and the overall green electricity supply capacity of the power system is shifting gears and accelerating. Currently, Chinese aluminum companies are also actively seeking diversified power supply in their local areas. Yunnan's largest rooftop photovoltaic power generation project will be fully operational by the end of this year. This project can provide 20 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, saving 6,000 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20,300 tons, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and dust by 6,100 tons, becoming a demonstration project for the construction of Yunal's green aluminum industrial park. Recently, the first distributed photovoltaic project for an electrolytic aluminum plant in China—the 23-megawatt distributed photovoltaic project of the China Power Investment Corporation's Qingtongxia Aluminum Plant—achieved full-capacity grid connection. As of May 10, the project has accumulated 5 million kilowatt-hours of electricity generation, all of which has been used by the Qingtongxia Aluminum Plant of CPIC's aluminum and electricity company for its 430,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project. This marks the beginning of a clean, green, and low-carbon high-quality development path for this electrolytic aluminum production enterprise with nearly 60 years of history. Recently, the "Implementation Plan for Synergistic Enhancement of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments clearly proposes that by 2030, the proportion of renewable energy used in China's electrolytic aluminum industry will increase to more than 30%. In the future, with the acceleration of China's green energy construction, the proportion of green and low-carbon production in China's electrolytic aluminum and the entire aluminum industry will rapidly increase. International Cooperation in Aluminum: International production capacity cooperation involves cooperating with countries that have industrial resources and lack similar production capacity, utilizing China's high-quality and surplus production capacity. Based on this new approach of international production capacity cooperation, aligning the development strategies of both sides is expected to upgrade economic cooperation to a strategic level for long-term development. It is not difficult to see that the multi-dimensional win-win nature of international production capacity cooperation is its key, and it also means that China will gain more partners for peaceful development and create a win-win situation for all parties. For China's aluminum industry, this means transferring its surplus high-quality aluminum production capacity to countries with resources and energy. In simple terms, it involves carrying out production capacity cooperation with countries that are underdeveloped in the aluminum industry or lack sufficient aluminum production capacity, achieving mutual benefit, and building a global aluminum industry community. As is well known, for many years, China's aluminum industry has heavily relied on imports for bauxite resources. Since 2020, annual bauxite imports have exceeded 100 million tons. In recent years, with China's increasing dependence on imported bauxite, particularly under the impetus of the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese companies have shown a growing willingness to mine bauxite overseas. Guinea, as a major global bauxite producer, has become an important source of bauxite imports and investment for Chinese companies. Weqiao Group was the first company to venture into this area. In early 2014, a consortium consisting of Shandong Weqiao Group, Yantai Port Group, UMS Guinea (a French investment company in Guinea), and Singapore's Weili International Group—the "Winning Alliance"—successfully developed the Boké bauxite project in Guinea and successfully shipped the first cargo of 260,000 tons of bauxite to Yantai Port in May 2019. This was the first major project in which a Chinese company successfully mined and transported bauxite back to China, marking the beginning of international production capacity cooperation between Chinese companies and Guinea, a West African country, in the aluminum industry. Subsequently, Chalco's Guinea Boffa project also went into production. Currently, in addition to Chalco and Weqiao Group, Chinese companies investing in bauxite projects in Guinea include Xinjiang Zhonghe, China Henan International Cooperation Group, and Zibo Rund Aluminum Co., Ltd., and most of the bauxite projects they have invested in have already gone into production. According to public information, last year, the head of Oriental Hope Group also went to Guinea for investment investigation and established a mining company, facilitating future bauxite investment and trade. Data shows that as of 2020, the agreed production capacity of Chinese companies in Guinea's bauxite projects reached approximately 184 million tons. In addition to Guinea in West Africa, Chinese companies have also made significant investments in aluminum projects in Southeast Asia. The difference is that investments in Guinea mainly focus on bauxite mining and transportation, while investments in Southeast Asia mainly focus on the downstream of the aluminum industry chain, including alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and supporting carbon projects. Investment areas in Southeast Asia are mainly located in Indonesia, Malaysia, and other countries. As a leading company in international production capacity cooperation in the aluminum industry, Weqiao Group began investing in the construction of an alumina plant in Indonesia in 2013. On October 3, 2013, President Xi Jinping and then-Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono jointly witnessed the signing of Weqiao Group's investment project in Indonesia. This alumina project, jointly funded by Shandong Weqiao Aluminum and Electricity and Indonesia's Harita Group, has a total production capacity of 2 million tons. This is also Indonesia's first large-scale alumina production enterprise.

On the same day, witnessed by President Xi Jinping and President Susilo, Hangzhou Jinjiang Group Co., Ltd. and West Kalimantan Province of Indonesia successfully signed a series of investment cooperation agreements, including the construction of a 1.5 million-ton-per-year alumina project. In addition, Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. and Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Holding Group Co., Ltd. have respectively invested in the construction of 2 million-ton capacity alumina projects in Indonesia. These projects are now basically in production. Currently, Chinese companies are also investing in and constructing several electrolytic aluminum projects in Southeast Asia. Based on the 2 million-ton alumina project invested in Indonesia, Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. has also built a 1 million-ton electrolytic aluminum project and supporting port terminals. Zhejiang Huafeng Group and Qingshan Industrial Co., Ltd. jointly established Indonesia Huqing Aluminum Co., Ltd., which is constructing a 1 million tons/year electrolytic aluminum (500kA) supporting project and a 500,000 tons/year pre-baked anode project in Qingshan Industrial Park on Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. Chongqing Bosai Group's 1 million-ton electrolytic aluminum project invested in Malaysia. It is reported that Zhejiang Huayou Company and Ningbo Liqin Company also intend to invest in electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia. It is worth mentioning that while China is accelerating the "going global" of aluminum production capacity, the world's leading aluminum industry technology is also accelerating its output. At the same time as engineering and technological output, it has also driven a large amount of China's industrial equipment to go global. In recent years, China's aluminum industry engineering project design units - Guiyang Aluminum and Magnesium Design Institute and Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Design Institute have provided a large number of high-quality engineering services for countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Vietnam, and Italy. On April 9, 2021, Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd. successfully signed a general contracting project for the electrolytic series upgrading and transformation project of Indonesia International Aluminum Company (INALUM)'s electrolytic aluminum plant, with a contract value of approximately US$100 million. However, it is not difficult to find from the above investment cases that in recent years, China's international aluminum production capacity cooperation has mainly focused on Guinea and Indonesia. Guinea mainly focuses on bauxite mining, while Indonesia mainly focuses on alumina project investment, and has just begun to extend to electrolytic aluminum and supporting industries. The reason for this investment situation is mainly due to the background of Indonesia, which was originally an aluminum resource exporting country, issuing a mineral export restriction order. From the current point of view, these problems will not be alleviated in the future, and will even worsen. Because with the development of the local industrial economy, these countries with abundant bauxite reserves are no longer willing to rely solely on exporting mineral resources to develop their local economies, but rather hope to use international industrial advantages and capital advantages to develop their local aluminum industry, so as to promote domestic economic development, increase local taxes, and promote employment. It is timely that in recent years, China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum have been in a state of overcapacity, and are in a critical period of macroeconomic regulation, especially since the issuance of Document No. 42 (Guiding Opinions on Creating a Good Market Environment, Promoting Structural Adjustment and Transformation, and Increasing Efficiency in the Nonferrous Metals Industry) in 2016 and Document No. 656 of the NDRC Office [2017] (Action Plan for Cleaning Up and Rectifying Illegal and Irregular Projects in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry) in 2017, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been strictly controlled. Although the regulatory intensity of the alumina industry is not as high as that of electrolytic aluminum, the potential risk of overcapacity already exists. In order to resolve the hidden worries of overcapacity in the alumina industry, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Notice on Promoting the Orderly Development of the Alumina Industry in 2018. Regulatory policies followed closely, and in addition, after decades of rapid growth in China's alumina industry, a large amount of red mud has been produced, causing the environmental capacity to reach its limit. In short, whether from the perspective of supply-side structural reform or environmental tolerance, China no longer has the conditions to vigorously develop the electrolytic aluminum and alumina industries. In addition, in recent years, trade protectionism in the aluminum industry has risen, and the internationalization of the aluminum industry is also a powerful way for the aluminum processing industry to deal with international trade disputes and "double anti" investigations. It is reported that in the first half of this year, Guinean authorities repeatedly emphasized that international mining companies in the country should submit plans for the construction of alumina plants within a specified time limit. Guinea has been seeking to use its mineral resources for economic development, and has repeatedly stated that it hopes that investment enterprises will build mineral smelting enterprises locally, promising to build alumina plants locally, refining bauxite into higher-value alumina. It can be seen that China's "going global" of the aluminum industry is the supply and demand required by the global industrial structure market, and it is timely to further expand the international market and develop international cooperation in aluminum. Although China's aluminum industry has already had some successful cases of "going global" in some regions, this is only the beginning. In the future, with the increasing pressure to achieve China's "dual carbon" goals and under the guidance of the "Belt and Road" initiative, it is believed that Chinese enterprises will surely forge ahead on the road of international cooperation in aluminum, and work together with global colleagues to create production capacity cooperation from bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, and jointly build a global aluminum industry community. Recycled Aluminum The aluminum industry, with its high recycling rate of over 90%, highlights its cost advantages in the production process and its energy-saving and emission-reduction advantages throughout its life cycle. Therefore, the development of the recycled aluminum industry has become the main growth pole for the future development of the entire aluminum industry. "Once energy-consuming, lifelong useful." Ge Honglin, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, secretary of the Party committee and president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that high-energy-consuming products are often also high-energy-carrying products. We should cherish the energy consumption in the initial production process and maximize its transformation into energy carrying in future recycling. It can be said that recycling is the process of transforming the release of high-energy-consuming into low-energy-consuming products. Aluminum materials produced using recycled aluminum save the energy consumption of producing electrolytic aluminum through alumina. Therefore, the development of the recycled aluminum industry is of great significance to the sustainable development of China's aluminum industry. First, the recycled aluminum industry has obvious advantages in energy saving and emission reduction. Relevant data show that the energy consumption of producing 1 ton of recycled aluminum is only 3% to 5% of that of electrolytic aluminum, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 0.8 tons, save more than 10 tons of water, and also reduce the treatment of solid waste, wastewater, and slag, with obvious advantages in energy saving and emission reduction. According to statistics, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's total recycled aluminum output was about 34.8 million tons. Compared with producing the same amount of electrolytic aluminum, it saved about 120 million tons of standard coal, 770 million cubic meters of water, reduced carbon dioxide emissions by about 380 million tons, and reduced solid waste emissions by about 696 million tons. From 2011 to 2020, China's recycled aluminum output increased from 4.4 million tons to 7.35 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%. In 2021, China's recycled aluminum output was 8 million tons, and it is expected to reach 11.77 million tons by 2025. Second, the development of recycled aluminum is also an important way to alleviate the shortage of bauxite resources in China.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's total再生铝产量 reached approximately 34.8 million tons. Compared to producing the same amount of electrolytic aluminum, this saved about 140 million tons of aluminum ore resources. In 2021, China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum production reached 77.48 million tons and 38.5 million tons respectively, consuming approximately 150 million tons of bauxite. In 2021, China imported 107.4 million tons of bauxite, meaning about two-thirds of its bauxite resources relied on imports. Therefore, developing再生铝 is a favorable approach to saving bauxite resources and alleviating the tension in China's bauxite resources. Thirdly, China has entered a peak period for aluminum product recycling and possesses key elements for developing the再生铝 industry—resources. By the end of 2021, China's accumulated aluminum consumption had reached approximately 420 million tons. Transportation, construction, and packaging containers are the main sources of waste aluminum in China. According to relevant data, the transportation sector is the largest source of waste aluminum recycling in China, accounting for 41%, followed by the construction industry at about 34%, and packaging containers at about 21%. The lifespan of aluminum used in construction is 40-60 years, while that of transportation tools is 10-20 years, and the lifespan of aluminum used in food packaging is generally around 1-2 years. Since the beginning of the 21st century, after China's annual car sales exceeded 2 million vehicles, it has maintained rapid growth. Considering the lifespan of transportation tools is 10-20 years, an increasing number of vehicles will reach the end of their lifespan in the coming years. According to relevant data, from 2021 to 2023, the growth rate of waste aluminum recycling in China's transportation industry reached 18%-21%, driving an 8%-16% increase in total waste aluminum recycling. Therefore, China will experience a phased peak in waste aluminum recycling. Thus, developing the再生铝 industry has significant advantages in alleviating the two core elements of resource and energy in the development of China's aluminum industry, especially at the critical juncture of achieving the "dual carbon" goals. It is also one of the effective ways to promote the aluminum industry to achieve carbon emission reduction as scheduled. In the nationally issued "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Circular Economy" and the "Implementation Plan for Synergistic Enhancement of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction," both emphasize accelerating the development of the再生有色金属 industry and propose that the aluminum industry should increase the proportion of再生铝. By 2025, China's再生铝 production is expected to reach 11.5 million tons. Industry experts predict that with the approaching peak recycling period of domestic waste aluminum products and the gradual improvement of the import standard system for waste aluminum raw materials, China's再生铝 production will continue to grow significantly before 2030. Under the encouragement and guidance of national industry policies, local governments and enterprises have recently been actively deploying the development of the再生铝 industry and accelerating the investment and construction of projects. The "Henan Province's 14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" proposes that by 2025, Henan Province's再生铝 production will reach 3.8 million tons. In 2021, Zoucheng City, Shandong Province, will have a再生铝 production capacity of 1.2 million tons, which is expected to reach 3 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. At that time, the proportion of再生铝 production capacity will exceed 60% of the city's total aluminum industry. At the beginning of the year, Pingguo City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, also held a strategic deployment meeting for the development of the再生铝 industry and issued the "Implementation Plan for the Development of the Pingguo City再生铝 Industry," proposing to make every effort to promote the great development, progress, and prosperity of the再生铝 industry in Pingguo City. Henan Mingtai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. currently has a再生铝 production capacity of approximately 1.38 million tons. Nanshan Aluminum Company has also deployed a 100,000-ton再生铝 project. Luoyang Longding Aluminum Industry Company is also accelerating the progress of its 500,000-ton再生铝 project. Baotou Aluminum Company's newly built 20-ton heat storage melting furnace for the再生铝 production line has officially started operation. It is evident that some insightful people in the industry have already taken action, and a large number of projects have moved from planning to implementation and are being constructed in full swing. As Zhang Hongen, honorary chairman of Henan Yulian Energy Group Co., Ltd., said at the signing ceremony of the Guangyuan 500,000-ton green circular再生铝 resource utilization project, the recycling of aluminum is a sunrise industry and an important direction for the future development of the aluminum industry. It should be emphasized that there are still some factors hindering the development of China's再生铝 industry. For example, the phenomenon of downgrading the recycling of aluminum products is relatively common. It is hoped that relevant departments will pay attention to this and make breakthroughs and innovations in aluminum recycling technology and management concepts as soon as possible. The再生铝 industry has the advantages of saving resources, energy, and protecting the environment, and is an important way for the sustainable development of the aluminum industry.

In the future, the再生铝 industry will surely become one of the main players in China's aluminum industry. This is just the beginning. China's aluminum industry needs to adapt to the five major development concepts of "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing." Under the new requirements of the "dual carbon" goals, it needs to accelerate the development of green and low-carbon initiatives, international production capacity cooperation, and large-scale recycling. In addition, it must also address the ever-present issues of technological innovation and high-end development. Failure to consider the overall situation will lead to failure in specific areas; failure to consider the long term will lead to failure in the short term. The future of aluminum requires the collective thinking of the entire industry. Let us live up to the ambition of a strong aluminum nation, ride the wind of the times, break through the waves, and together create a new brilliance for the future!